UN-Truth

China Hand wrote in his (her?) brilliant blog, ChinaMatters, on Tuesday that “In contrast to Bhutto, who grotesquely over-reached and counterproductively traded on her U.S. support, Sharif seems to be playing his political hand with considerable skill and coolness—a fact that has probably not escaped Pakistanis wearied of Musharraf’s spectacular ineptness as a political leader. In an interesting move for a politician who once tried to get himself anointed ‘Defender of the Faith’, upon his return Sharif visited the Datar Durbar complex, the tomb of a Sufi saint revered throughout South Asia.
Sufism is at the heart of Punjab’s cultural identity and Sharif visited the tomb no doubt to play up his Punjab roots but also to place some distance between himself and Saudi Arabia, which considers itself the arbiter of Islamic orthodoxy and looks askance at Sufism”. You can look up this report by date here.

China Hand, who does everything with the most exquisite thoroughness, adds that “Looking at the circumstances around opposition leader Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan, one has to believe that there is a deal between Musharraf and Sharif, despite Sharif’s vehement denials. Or, more likely, that there is a deal between Musharraf and Saudi Arabia and between Saudi Arabia and Sharif, with the Saudis acting as guarantors and providing the necessary degree of separation and deniability both two faux-democrats need to maintain their credibility as political leaders. Because, absent a deal to guide and constrain Sharif’s actions, it is difficult to look at allowing his return as anything less than political suicide by Musharraf. This can be understand by looking at Punjab—home to 86 million people, the richest of Pakistan’s four provinces and the center of its politics, the key to power in Pakistan–and the political base of Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N party. Since Sharif’s departure from the scene, Musharraf moved to secure Punjab by midwifing a new Punjab-centered political party, the PML-Q, and lavishing patronage on its chief — and his main parliamentary ally — Chaudhry Shujaat (not to be confused with the Supreme Court Chief Justice). But all that looks like it might all be swept away by Sharif’s return. In addition to his innate reserves of charisma, the surviving organization of his party, the electorate’s general disgust with all things Musharraf, and having a real, live lion show up to greet him at the airport—and despite his reputed legacy as a corrupt politico who once had his ruffians storm the Supreme Court, the same institution for which he now professes such a tender regard–Sharif has Saudi good will and possibly Saudi money to spread around in the service of his campaign. Sharif filed papers to run for a parliamentary seat—indicating that his party will not boycott the elections (hint of a deal there) and triggering a flood of speculation in the Pakistani press that PML-Q will be decimated by a surge of support for Sharif and Chaudhry will fade into irrelevance. So, unless Musharraf wanted to shatter his base of support in Pakistan’s most important province, gut the political party that provides him with his only parliamentary cover, and, in essence, destroy his tenuous hold on power while he’s attempting a difficult transition to a civilian presidency, he’s not going to let Nawaz Sharif return without a deal, even if Saudi Arabia and the United States are wagging disapproving fingers at him…”

China Hand is certainly on to something. But, I can’t help wondering if Gen. Musharraf isn’t running on his own very personal internal, politician’s instincts — and taking risks that may somehow help him pull off something that will be a surprise to all of us (probably including himself) … Politicians take more hair-raising risks than any entrepreneur.

On 19 November, China Hand wrote this: “First a news flash: Frederick Kagan and Michael O’Hanlon are idiots. Via Antiwar.com, Pakistan Daily reports: ‘Frederick Kagan of the right-wing American Enterprise Institute and Michael O’Hanlon of the more liberal Brookings Institution argue in an article published in the New York Times on Sunday that the US simply cannot stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss … Possible plan: One possible plan would be a Special Forces operation with the limited goal of preventing Pakistan’s nuclear materials and warheads from getting into the wrong hands. Given the degree to which Pakistani nationalists cherish these assets, it is unlikely the United States would get permission to destroy them. Somehow, American forces would have to team with Pakistanis to secure critical sites and possibly to move the material to a safer place. For the United States, the safest bet would be shipping the material to someplace like New Mexico, but even pro-American Pakistanis would be unlikely to cooperate. It would be better for the US to settle for establishing a remote redoubt within Pakistan, with the nuclear technology guarded by elite Pakistani forces backed up and watched over by crack international troops’…

China Hand comments: “I actually had to check the New York Times website to make sure this wasn’t a spoof or some piece of anti-American psyops by the Pakistani media. And yes, they really said it. Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezus.”

However amusing and tear-jerking this loony story is (it is enough to make one weep and laugh at the same time), it is simply inconceivable that any Pakistani would cooperate in handing over the country’s nuclear assests for shipment to New Mexico, or whatever.

Anyone who has listened for years to Pakistani and Indian officials argue in the UN for years would know for sure that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capabilities were developed in tit-for-tat riposts to India’s nuclear weapons program — which was itself developed as an indignant anti-colonial protest at the situation caused by only a few nations (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, as it happens — the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China) having such a potent “deterrent”.  As long as India has nuclear weapons, Pakistan has said, it will as well.  Neither India nor Pakistan are about to  give their nuclear assets up — certainly not because of transitory domestic political crises.

Filed under: Pakistan