or dont you agree

the turtle sure looks boxed tho

i believe this eritrea mouse is aggressively holding the ethiopia bulldog off with one hand
by dint of her sympathy with somalia & ogaden
& is just as aggressively holding the sudan bulldog off with her other hand
by dint of her sympathy with beja

terrifying sympathy

& an existential dilemma for them all

but the turtle she holds at bay
with her nose & roar alone

for the turtle
this is not existential
but just adventurist shell games as usual

nutshells
http://hiram7.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/eritrea_s-regional-role-and-foreign-policy.pdf
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5136&l=1

Global Risks
Major changes since February 14, 2008.
Headline risk
The risk increased of regional conflagration in the Horn of Africa after the UN peace-keeping mission along the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) began a “temporary” pullout from the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ), heightening bilateral tensions. UNMEE retains only administrative status within Ethiopia, so its ability to provide a buffer is significantly reduced. Heightening tensions on the border with Ethiopia and a growing sense of international isolation in Eritrea have led to increased militarisation at home and an aggressive, adventurist foreign policy across the region, which is reducing the potential for a resolution to the border dispute.

& i am still flying blind here without any professional intelligence at all
tho i have requested it days ago from both ibru & stratfor

so please take all following replies with more than the usual grain of salt
at least until we can do better

first
i dont really think anything is or will be permanent here
except for the already ongoing state of struggle & flux

& by unjustifiable
i guess i was really just thinking in terms of the purported rule of law
emanating primarily from turtle bay & the hague etc

in terms of actual cosmic law
everything is already perfectly just
yet also unjustifiable
because what is already just cant be justified either

second
i think eritrea has already done all she needs to do to have won the day with very substantial gains
& would be foolish to press matters further at this time

badme has no strategic nor economic but only political importance

by contrast
the otherwise full repatriation of the tsz
enlarges the effective territory of eritrea by a quarter or a third

there is no need or incentive to try to regain badme at this time
nor to do anything at all really aggressive
since that would only invite ethiopia to respond by taking assab

much better to just smile all the way to the bank & reposition all the abandoned unmee gear for any eventually necessary defense of assab

& finally
regarding any punishment or rather further punishment of eritrea by the united nations
as if negligently keeping this tiny weak country on a major war footing for 6 extra years already
while preempting her much needed land & fuel & food
by allowing a fully adjudicated border to hang unresolved
werent punishment enough
it is such further aggressions by turtle bay as these that will only further embarrass & weaken her herself & her supposed rule of law
both in relation to eritrea & generally

so it seems to me eritrea only wins & keeps winning now
with her new look ma no hands look
& not even any more roar either
for she can now at last actually afford to relax by one degree

this much is long overdue

she has played the silly game fairly well imo

& so this outcome is justifiable as well as just
even if also still temporary

But I am more than surprised — I am perturbed — at the suggestion, on the link at UN Dispatch mentioned above, that “Flagrant violations of the accepted rules of peacekeeping cannot be allowed to go unpunished”.

How does UN Dispatch suggest that any such violations be “punished”, exactly?

Calls to punish this, or punish that, or to teach somebody a lesson, are usually red flag alerts, danger ahead …

And, while it’s going about issuing calls for punishment, does UN Dispatch feel so protective of the UN as an institution that “flagrant violations of the accepted rules of peacekeeping” — whatever that means — is seen as somehow much worse than, say, violations of UN resolutions, or rulings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration?

some additional opinions & prognostications
http://voanews.com/english/2008-02-20-voa32.cfm
http://www.undispatch.com/archives/2008/02/meanwhile_a_pea.php

practically another full day has elapsed since the previous crumbs

indeed was there no regular noon press briefing at turtle bay today

my guess is eritrea will not give in or change her mind a bit

& there will be no war because neither side has the stomach or pockets for one just now

the mouse who roared
finally & deservedly has the entire rest of the world by the short hairs
by a score of about 191 to 1
& i fully expect her to revel in her conquest for a while

but the unmee troops will soon be released en masse
i would further guess
provided they leave the horn
since eritrea certainly cant afford to even seem to be practicing terrorism in any sense whatsoever

& good on her if she does keep all the equipment shorn from the unmee force

small recompense for her totally unjustifiable loss of territory at the hands of turtle bay

curiously nothing at all from stratfor on all this tho i have nudged them for it