West ready to expand and increase severity of UNSC sanctions on Iran

Reports indicated that Western governments are ready to expand UN Security Council sanctions against Iran soon.

After a meeting in Berlin, the Associated Press reported yesterday, “A European diplomat and a U.S. official, both speaking of condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the resolution would expand existing sanctions. But the European diplomat said it would not feature new economic sanctions. ‘It increases the severity of the sanctions, and it expands the sanctions in some of the categories’ the U.S. official said. The U.S. official referred specifically to travel bans and asset freezes, but said the group agreed not to release the full text of the agreement until it had been distributed to the rest of the Security Council in the coming days. ‘This is a swift reminder to the Iranians that they are not in compliance’, the U.S. official said. ‘This resolution builds on the last two resolutions … (and) it has some new elements that will be unveiled in New York’, the U.S. official said”. This AP report is published here.

Today, unsurprisingly, the AP reported that “Iran’s nuclear activities will not be deterred by any new UN Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday.
The five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany agreed Tuesday to impose new sanctions on Iran over its controversial nuclear program though the measures appeared to fall short of what the United States had wanted. ‘From our point of view, the issue is over. The issuance of a new resolution won’t have any impact on the behavior of the Iranian nation’, the official IRNA news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying”. This AP report is here.

Meanwhile, Iran has just promised the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — again — to answer all questions about its past nuclear research programs.

Iran's Khatami calls for logic, restraint and negotiations

The Christian Science Monitor’s Scott Peterson has reported, in a just-published article, that “Mr. Khatami – the reformist cleric who was twice elected in landslide victories – has just told him that ” ‘The solution is for both sides to resort to logic, refrain from provocative rhetoric, and put the emphasis on negotiations … We have no choice but to overcome misunderstandings that mostly stem from the meddling of the US [in the Middle East] and its wrong policies in Iran’, said Khatami. ‘We can find common interests in the region and the world. And we can also avoid actions that would be damaging to both sides’. Failure could mean ‘things will get worse, a huge crisis will be created, and then it is not only Iran that would suffer’, warns Khatami. ‘Our crisis-stricken region would also suffer greatly, and the US itself ‘ … US fears of Iran’s nuclear program are a “pretext” that can be resolved through inspections and accepting Iran’s ‘right’ to nuclear technology’, says Khatami. ‘ Iran does not have the bomb and does not want the bomb’.” Scott Peter’s report on Khatami’s remarks is published here.

War is hell – are sanctions a better option?

Carah Ong, Iran policy analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation in Washington, D.C., has just written an article taking to task American policy towards Iran that was published in MERIP (Middle East Research and Information Project), entitled “War Is Peace, Sanctions Are Diplomacy“:

“The White House is pressing ahead with its stated goal of persuading the UN Security Council to pass far-reaching sanctions to punish Iran for refusing to suspend its nuclear research program. Sanctions are what President George W. Bush is referring to when he pledges to nervous U.S. allies that he intends to ‘continue to work together to solve this problem diplomatically’. The non-diplomatic solution in this framing of the ‘problem’, presumably, would be airstrikes on nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic. With its portrayal of UN and unilateral U.S. sanctions as part of a diplomatic effort, the Bush administration has successfully confused much media coverage of the Iranian-Western confrontation over Iran’s enrichment of uranium. Sanctions are punitive measures, not serious diplomacy, and the Bush administration has never undertaken a sustained diplomatic initiative aimed either at inducing Iran to cease enriching uranium or at soothing broader US-Iranian tensions. Meanwhile, the Bush administration’s persistent refusal to take military options ‘off the table’, combined with its intensified rhetoric against Iran, has made sanctions palatable to allies, as well as to some of the most dovish members of Congress and the American public — but without addressing the political disputes that keep the US and Iran on a collision course. Congress, by and large, has merely greased the skids.

“On September 28, the foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the US — issued a joint statement, along with Germany and the European Union, agreeing to wait to discuss a potential third round of sanctions on Iran until International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana delivered progress reports on negotiations with Iran in November. No sooner had the IAEA released its November 15 report than the Bush administration renewed its push for stiffer penalties on the Islamic Republic. U.S. spokespersons seized upon the IAEA’s statement that Iranian cooperation with its investigators, while ‘sufficient’ and ‘timely’, has been ‘reactive rather than proactive’. This ‘reactive’ posture, along with Iran’s blockage of spot inspections of nuclear sites (as required by the Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), made it impossible for the IAEA to assert that Iran’s program is geared exclusively toward peaceful generation of nuclear power, as Iran claims. The US dismissed the positive aspects of the Agency’s report. As State Department briefer Sean McCormack put it, “Partial credit doesn’t cut it when you’re talking about issues of whether or not Iran is developing a nuclear weapon” …
Continue reading War is hell – are sanctions a better option?

Iran takes step to comply with IAEA demands

The Associated Press is reporting from Vienna — ahead of a key meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) there next week — that “Iran has met a key demand of the UN nuclear agency, handing over long-sought blueprints showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads, diplomats said Tuesday. Iran’s decision to release the documents, which were seen by UN inspectors two years ago, was seen as a concession designed to head off the threat of new UN sanctions … The agency has been seeking possession of the blueprints since 2005, when it stumbled upon them among a batch of other documents during its examination of suspect Iranian nuclear activities. While agency inspectors had been allowed to examine them in the country, Tehran had up to now refused to let the IAEA have a copy for closer perusal. Diplomats accredited to the agency, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were divulging confidential information, said the drawings were hand-carried by Mohammad Saeedi, deputy director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and handed over last week in Vienna to Oli Heinonen, an ElBaradei deputy in charge of the Iran investigations. Iran maintains it was given the papers without asking for them during its black market purchases of nuclear equipment decades ago that now serve as the backbone of its program to enrich uranium — a process that can generate both power or create the fissile core of nuclear warheads. Iran’s refusal to suspend enrichment has been the main trigger for both existing U.N. sanctions and the threat of new ones. Both the IAEA and other experts have categorized the instructions outlined in the blueprints as having no value outside of a nuclear weapons program”.

The AP report added that “the diplomats said Tehran has failed to meet other requests made by the International Atomic Energy Agency in its attempts to end nearly two decades of nuclear secrecy on the part of Iran. The diplomats spoke to The Associated Press as IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei put the finishing touches on his latest report to his agency’s 35-nation board of governors for consideration next week … While ElBaradei’s report is likely to mention the Iranian concession on the drawings and other progress made in clearing up ambiguities in Iran’s nuclear activities, it was unclear whether it would also detail examples of what the diplomats said were continued Iranian stonewalling. Senior IAEA officials were refused interviews with at least two top Iranian nuclear officials suspected of possible involvement in a weapons program, they said. One was the leader of a physics laboratory at Lavizan, outside Tehran, which was razed before the agency had a chance to investigate activities there. The other was in charge of developing Iran’s centrifuges, used to enrich uranium”.
The AP report on Iran handing over the long-demanded blueprints is here
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A week ago, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had succeeded in making 3,000 centrifuges working, the Associated Press reported: ” Ahmadinejad has in the past claimed Iran succeeded in installing the 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Wednesday’s claim was his first official statement that the plant is now fully operating the 3,000 centrifuges. ‘We have now reached 3,000 machines’, Ahmadinejad told thousands of Iranians in Birjand in eastern Iran, in a show of defiance of international demands to halt the program believed to be masking the country’s nuclear arms efforts. Centrifuges are used in enriching uranium, a process that can produce either fuel for a nuclear reactor or material for a warhead”.
The AP report about Iran having 3,000 centrifuges working together is here
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The United States and other countries believe that Iran should not have its own indigenous uranium enrichment capacity. A number of compromises have been proposed, including having an international consortium produce enriched uranium for Iran outside the country, but Iran has insisted it must have this ability on its own territory. Iran regards this as its right, and also argues that it cannot have confidence that it would always receive the enriched fuel it would need to run nuclear reactors because it has been under continuous U.S. sanctions for 27 years, and could not even get spare airplane parts. Iran says it only wants a peaceful nuclear program to provide energy for civilian purposes, but the same technology that can produce enriched uranium for nuclear reactors can also be used to produce the highly enriched uranium needed to produce nuclear weapons.

Does UNSG BAN know something we don't?

In an interview published today in the Italian newspaper La Stampa, in which he was asked whether he was concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, UNSG BAN Ki-Moon said: “Yes, I’m very worried about Iran’s nuclear progress.”

Reuters news agency is reporting from Rome that BAN also said “he had met Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad briefly during the recent U.N. General Assembly, and was prepared to meet him privately if necessary. ‘I have said with great urgency on many occasions that the differences can be resolved through peace, through dialogue; a war or military action is not desirable in any way’, Ban said”.  The Reuters report on BAN’s interview in La Stampa is posted here.

Yesterday, in advance of further discussion next week in Europe of a possible third round of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council, the U.S. went ahead and imposed its own new sanctions.

[The new U.S. sanctions, according to the NY Times today, “designated the Quds force of the Revolutionary Guard and four state-owned Iranian banks {Bank Melli, Bank Mellat, Bank Saderat and Bank Kargoshaee} as supporters of terrorism, and the Guard itself as an illegal exporter of ballistic missiles … But it also reflected some caution by an administration that has also accused the Quds force of aiding Shiite militia attacks on American soldiers in Iraq, and has even detained some Quds force members there, but has resisted calls for retaliatory strikes inside Iran … The administration clearly hopes to enlist allies around the world in its new, tougher stance — in part because the United States, having maintained its own stiff sanctions against Iran since the Islamic revolution in 1979, does not have much leverage left itself. The administration hopes its influence can turn Iran into a political and economic pariah from which more foreign institutions will shy away … The United States is not accusing the entire Revolutionary Guard Corps of being a terrorist organization, a step advocated by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York … But Thursday’s announcement is still an ambitious attempt to squeeze the upper echelons of the Iranian government, including the Ministry of Defense.  It is the first time that the United States has tried to use the terrorist label and the sanctions associated with it to isolate or punish another country’s military…”
The NYTimes report on the new U.S. unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran is here.]

The Associated Press reported from Tehran on 11 October that Iran claimed to have given required answers (at least some) about Iran’s nuclear program to a visiting team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): ” ‘In these long talks, the Iranian side presented an additional explanation about its P-1 and P-2 centrifuges to remove remaining ambiguities and questions’, the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Iran’s deputy nuclear negotiator Javad Vaeedi as saying … IAEA Deputy Director-General Olli Heinonen headed the U.N. delegation that met with Vaeedi’s team…” The AP added that IAEA inspectors were “allowed to revisit a heavy-water reactor under construction outside Arak in central Iran that has been off-limits since April”, and that “IAEA chief Mohamed El-Baradei praised Iran’s cooperation with the agency in September as a significant step, but urged Tehran to answer all questions — including reported experiments that link enrichment and missile technology — before the end of the year”.
The AP report from Tehran in mid-October is posted here
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