Tag: Third Intifada

Palestinians: is "keeping the lid on" a strategy?

All this talk about a possible Third Intifada…

One of the most irritating things about this discussion is the assumption that violence is the strategy of choice for Palestinians.

Palestinians are not ready for violence, and there are absolutely no indications either that they have in any way prepared for it. Moreover, the sentiment most often heard is a refusal to be the one to go out on the street to protest and get arrested, with all the consequences, while their families will be left alone without support and the others will stay in their offices and continue to be comfortable, making money…

But, the situation is getting worse and worse.

Nevertheless, this speculation about another Intifada is a classic example of “the boogeyman” approach: the suggestion is made that if x or y does not happen, then one’s worst fears will come true…

UPDATE: On Thursday 28 February, Dalia Hatuqa wrote about the Third Intifada speculation in The National here, saying that “Of late, Palestinians have become an afterthought for the Israeli public. This was evident in the latest Israeli elections … There is a too-little discussed acceptance in Israel that the denial of rights and the self-determination of millions of Palestinians is a normal status quo”. She added that ‘Neither Israel nor the PA has an interest in another intifada and, as long as security cooperation between the two continues, Israel can rest easy. But the ongoing policies of Israel’s occupation are unsustainable and it is clear that Palestinians will not tolerate them in perpetuity. As long as Israel continues to rely on carrots and sticks to temporarily quash popular outrage, the PA will be walking a fine line between an angry constituency and a demanding occupying force’. Meanwhile, she reported, “A senior Fatah official, Jibril Rajoub, went on Israel Radio to echo Mr Abbas’s statement, declaring ‘on behalf of the entire Palestinian leadership that there is no plan to lead to bloodshed’.”

Continue reading Palestinians: is "keeping the lid on" a strategy?

"Nothing is going to happen": predictions on stand-off as Palestinian Third Intifada (non-violent, this time) said to be launched

Some of the calls for action on this weekend of commemoration of the Nakba (catastrophe), or the Palestinian dispossession that took place some 63 years ago, in the fighting that surrounded the creation of the State of Israel, said this would be the start of the Third Palestinian Intifada — which they want to be decidedly non-violent.

The coordination of demonstrations within the West Bank and Gaza, with simultaneous action by Palestinian refugees demanding return from the borders of Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, caused a serious case of jitters in the Israeli military and security establishment, who did make real preparations to prevent any upset to the current status quo.

Not-fully-trained IDF recruits were prepared to confront mass popular demonstrations along The Wall in the West Bank.

Police were deployed throughout East Jerusalem.

Other Israeli preparations were made along the borders.

This has been the talk at dinner tables and social gatherings over the last month.

However, some Palestinians predict that despite the build-up, in expectations as well as in troop deployments, not much will happen.

Certainly, they say, not much will happen if most people will continue only to discuss the matter at their dinner tables, while just a few others will be putting their bodies on the front lines. No one is willing to pay the price of the predictable reaction as long as most Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank are going to stay comfortably at home, participating mainly only virtually.

One death has already been recorded in clashes in East Jerusalem.

But, most of East Jerusalem is still quiet…

YNet is reporting here that “Israel’s political leadership instructed the IDF not to take risks and assume major precautions. Indeed, the army already reinforced its troops in the West Bank and prepared reserve forces as well. The IDF will deploy in force at potential trouble spots, in order to make its presence felt and create deterrence. In the first circles of friction with protestors, soldiers will not be carrying weapons, but rather, only crowd-control means. The orders call on soldiers to show restraint and avoid casualties, which are the tested and true recipe for escalation; we want zero funerals, as the army refers to it. In the next circles of security, there will be a response for the possibility that the protestors will also include gunmen in their midst. Soldiers have been instructed to put an end to any escalation at its early stages, using massive force. Meanwhile, Israeli officials hope that their coordination with the Palestinian Authority will remain effective, as it was in the past”.

Though nobody knows for sure, the YNet article says, and an escalation could easily happen despite the best intentions, “Officials in the defense establishment and at the Prime Minister’s Office have a feeling that the Palestinian Authority’s interest – despite the coordination with Hamas – prompts the conclusion that ‘wasting’ the public’s energies on ‘Nakba Day’ is not a worthwhile move. These energies are better reserved for September, when Palestinian statehood may be declared”…

The YNet article does note, however, that ” ‘Nakba Day’ events will be taking place at various locations, in different geographical areas, and may deeply affect each other. Hence, any pledge by any element, but it Israeli or Palestinian, to maintain restraint in the West Bank promises nothing. The situation in the West Bank may escalate to uncontrolled violence as result of external influence, such as the following: Protests by the Islamic Brotherhood and opposition elements in Jordan; marches towards that border that will be aired on TV and inflame emotions; mass demonstrations in Egypt under the banner of the ‘Third Intifada committee’; mass marches in Gaza; violence among Arab-Israelis; and a flare-up in the Middle East’s most problematic theater: Friday prayers”…